Dynasty Scatter-Graph
March 16th, 2017

     So I've been very active this year in the post draft rankings and such.  Like the past couple years these are based off of player projections and age in the scatter graphs.  And though there were a few busts last year the trend has been fairly accurate.  Well except for Zack, who I called out as the favorite to win and had a bust year compared to what was predicted.  So let's put up the previous two years then the 2017 season.

2015 Scatter-graph

     That above is the 2015 season and indicates the current owner and where the team was on the scatter graph.  It's more similar to the current year's scatter graph as it shows teams in different phases.  But unlike the the current year, the teams are not as grouped as well.

2016 Scatter-graph

     The 2016 season abovereally had about 10 favorites to go the distance.  And then Jordan kinda came out of nowhere to make a Championship run.  Nater was also significantly better than what this table indicated.

2017 Scatter-graph

     As you can see it is quite evident a slowdown in scoring.  It's not due the change in contracts or anything like that believe it or not.  In fact, the trend over the past few years is to grab more and more prospects.  That kicked up another notch this year and thus the product was a much lower scoring line mostly across the board.  One thing to really take away from this is how close all 16 teams are compared to recent years.  It looks like it may be one of the most competitive seasons so far.
    To the right here I have posted the top 61fantasy prospects according to Baseball Prospectus. The main site I go by for looking for young talent.  Typically there'd be 10 to 15 prospects take by the time the draft is over, as you can see there is a crap-ton taken already.  Those that were taken before the draft show their respective contracts.  The players with the "N/A" have not been created on the ESPN player universe.

     One thing that is apparent this year is that Steve has turned into one of the top teams in the league this time around.  However he is in the toughest division year and will likely have a worse record than predicted but still the favorite to win it all.

     His biggest contenders to keep up with him this year though I'd say would be Ole Nater (even though he is projected last) if his players keep improving faster than expected. Jon, who has a similar situation and both Andys.  Jay always has a way of poking his head in there to make a Championship run and then of course you have myself who won it all last year with Jordan, who finished second.  Though both mine and Jordan's teams do not appear as strong.

AL EAST
TEAM           RECORD   GBK   POINTS  

T. Kluge       13-08   -----  6,465.0

B. Kluge       12-09   -1.0   6,131.0 
R. Jones       05-16   -8.0   5,756.5
J. Kelm        05-16   -8.0   5,636.0

AL WEST
TEAM           RECORD   GBK   POINTS  

S. Boviall     17-04   -----  6,888.0  

A. Coak        14-07   -3.0   6,665.5

Z. Peters      12-09   -5.0   6,490.5
N. Good        11-10   -6.0   6,310.5

NL EAST
TEAM           RECORD   GBK   POINTS   
 
J. Jones       15-06   -----  6,640.0
 
J. Cook        13-08   -2.0   6,350.5  
K. Spector     08-13   -7.0   6,097.0

B. Brenneman   06-15   -9.0   6,004.0

NL WEST
TEAM           RECORD   GBK   POINTS   
A. Namisnak    16-05   -----  6,560.5
S. Hess        10-11   -6.0   6,177.0  
J. Good        07-14   -9.0   6,035.5
C. Watson      04-17   -12.0  5,742.5
RANK) PLAYEROWNERSIGNED
1) Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox (Age: 21)Nate Good5 Years at $72
2) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox (Age: 22)Nate Good4 Years at $69
3) Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves (Age: 23)Jeff Kelm7 Years at $80
4) Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals (Age: 19)Tyler Kluge5 Years at $72
5) Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets (Age: 21)Jay CookDrafted 98th
6) Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies (Age: 20)Brad Brenneman2 Years at $63
7) Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 21)Brad Brenneman2 Years at $63
8) Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Age: 20)Jeff KelmDrafted 88th
9) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 22)Rob Jones2 Years at $63
10) Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 22)Jeff Kelm2 Years at $63
11) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 22)Brad Brenneman2 Years at $63
12) Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs (Age: 20)Andy NamisnakDrafted 83rd
13) Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies (Age: 23)Bill KlugeDrafted 139th
14) Franklin Barreto, SS/2B, Oakland Athletics (Age: 21)Rob JonesDrafted 107th
15) Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 23)FREE AGENT
16) Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 21)Jay CookDrafted 112th
17) Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22)Brad Brenneman2 Years at $63
18) Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
19) Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 24)Brad Brenneman3 Years at $66
20) Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 21)Chris WatsonDrafted 8th
21) Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees (Age: 20)Chris WatsonDrafted 5th
22) Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres (Age: 22)Jay Cook4 Years at $146
23) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 23)Brad Brenneman2 Years at $63
24) Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 22)Rob Jones3 Years at $66
25) Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22)FREE AGENT
26) Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves (Age: 19)FREE AGENT
27) Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 24)Jeff Kelm3 Years at $66
28) Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres (Age: 25)Jeff Kelm4 Years at $69
29) Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 23)FREE AGENT
30) Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets (Age: 23)Stephen BoviallDrafter 97th
31) Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (Age: 20)FREE AGENT
32) Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
33) Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
34) Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox (Age: 18)FREE AGENT
35) Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres (Age: 19)Tyler KlugeDrafted 100th
36) Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves (Age: 20)Stephen BoviallDrafted 126th
37) Dan Vogelbach, 1B/UT, Seattle Mariners (Age: 24)FREE AGENT
38) Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22)FREE AGENT
39) Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox (Age: 22)N/A
40) Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 20)Tyler KlugeDrafted 114th
41) Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
42) Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians (Age: 24)Kyle SpectorDrafted 134th
43) Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 18)Chris WatsonDrafted 89th
44) Isan Diaz, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 20)FREE AGENT
45) Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 22)FREE AGENT
46) Tyler O’Neill, OF, Seattle Mariners (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
47) Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs (Age: 22)FREE AGENT
48) Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 23)FREE AGENT
49) Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
50) Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 19)FREE AGENT
51) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Age: 23)FREE AGENT
52) Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 24)FREE AGENT
53) Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 20)FREE AGENT
54) Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians (Age: 21)Rob JonesDrafted 128th
55) Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers (Age: 18)FREE AGENT
56) Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals (Age: 18)N/A
57) Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 20)FREE AGENT
58) Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves (Age: 23)FREE AGENT
59) A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics (Age: 21)N/A
60) Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins (Age: 21)FREE AGENT
61) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 18)FREE AGENT
#1  STEPHEN BOVIALL
Steve has made great strides the past couple years. It took five years toy get that first playoff win last year and he is looking great to improve upon that 4th place finish last year.  He leads the league in starting pitching and his bullpen is second best in the league.  That combination in addition to some of MLB's best young infielders he should have very little problems when it comes to making the playoffs.  The only downside I see to this squad is Hill & Lester are aging and may not be what they project.  Fortunately his other SPs are quite good if one or both falter this season.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        88.0  (7th)      27.85 (5th)
OF/DH       58.3  (14th)     27.27 (7th)
SPs         125.6 (1st)      30.57 (15th)
RPs         56.5  (2nd)      32.04 (14th)
DEPTH       17.4  (10th)     26.03 (8th)
OVERALL     328.0 (1st)      28.70 (11th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Robert Gzellman (Draft)              None



#2  ANDY COAK
Andy had a shockingly poor year last season for the bar that I set for him.  He is of course second in these rankings but not expected to even win his own division.  With a full season of Schwarber on his team he is expected to be improved and he has already figured out the system as he has 9 starting pitchers.  Most of them are above average too.  As a result of that, the depth that he is putting forth is greater than everyone else bench.  His pitching squad ranks top 5 and his only drawback is a below average batting squad.  But it would not be shocking to see that make it to around average if they have decent seasons.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        80.0  (10th)     28.53 (7th)
OF/DH       60.1  (13th)     26.51 (5th)
SPs         98.1  (5th)      26.95 (6th)
RPs         54.0  (4th)      27.45 (2nd)
DEPTH       42.4  (1st)      28.47 (13th)
OVERALL     317.4 (2nd)      27.66 (8th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Garrett Richards (Trade)             Yasmani Tomas



#3  JON JONES
Jonny is starting to make ripples finally with his team, led by Mookie Betts.  He's the favorite to win the top NL position here in the post draft rankings.  To help show you the progress of this masterful team builder, Jon was dead last in both 2013 and 2014, moved up to 14th in 2015.  Last year he clinched his first playoff birth in the league and is now looking to be a true Championship contender with a bunch of kids and a handful of aging guys.  His team really isn't eilite in any particular position but above average in everything except relief pitching.  The potential is there to really have something special though if one or two of his prospects have breakout years.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        91.1  (4th)      28.72 (9th)
OF/DH       68.8  (8th)      27.66 (8th)
SPs         106.0 (3rd)      28.66 (10th)
RPs         43.3  (12th)     27.21 (1st)
DEPTH       24.1  (5th)      25.27 (5th)
OVERALL     316.2 (3rd)      27.33 (6th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Daniel Murphy (Trade)                Steve Cishek
Jose Quintana (Trade)          



#4  ANDY NAMISNAK
Snak's team is expected to be around the same as last year when he finished second in points scored but playoff run ended prematurely with Jordan ousting him in the first round with a major upset.  He has an aging offense which is something to keep an eye on but they are currently projected to be average.  His pitching ranks top three so he will be heavily relying on them to make a run.  Once again this year though, The Snak is in the easiest division and should have no problem taking the division title home.  So at least there's his entry fee being returned to him right?

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        84.9  (8th)      30.10 (15th)
OF/DH       65.7  (10th)     31.58 (14th)
SPs         102.1 (4th)      29.59 (12th)
RPs         58.3  (1st)      29.23 (7th)
DEPTH       18.4  (9th)      25.55 (6th)
OVERALL     312.4 (4th)      28.82 (12th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Jason Kipnis (Trade)                 Carlos Correa
Jose Ramirez (Trade)                 David Ortiz
Brandon Crawford (Trade)
John Lackey (Draft)



#5  ZACK PETERS
Coming in with the fifth best offense in the league and ranking fifth overall is last year's favorite.  It was quite the disappointing year as a whole for Pete.  The letdown led to a 10-11 record and it's not hard to see why when McCutchen and Kuechel both had horrendous years compared to 2015.  The team is getting up there in age and he doesn't really own a prospect right now.  In fact he only has one player under 25 (Davies) and only one other player that is not yet 26 (Stroman).  So he has one to two, maybe 3 years before a full rebuild is in order.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        88.7  (6th)      30.08 (14th)
OF/DH       70.1  (6th)      29.48 (11th)
SPs         90.4  (13th)     28.36 (9th)
RPs         56.5  (3rd)      30.54 (10th)
DEPTH       20.2  (8th)      31.48 (16th)
OVERALL     309.1 (5th)      30.07 (15th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Garrett Richards (Trade)             Yasmani Tomas



#6  TYLER KLUGE
I, the defending champion, am ranked slightly higher than last year but am feeling mildly worse to start the season.  My pitching was about average last year and is now ranked second to last this year.  Be that as it may however, my batting is still tops in the league, led primarily by my infielders.  With the new rules I am stashing away three prospects which really drops the age down a bit. The team is older as a whole and injuries will likely be a factor as the season progresses.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        98.6  (1st)      26.87 (3rd)
OF/DH       70.1  (6th)      26.35 (4th)
SPs         86.1  (15th)     27.20 (7th)
RPs         46.5  (10th)     28.46 (5th)
DEPTH       23.3  (6th)      26.80 (12th)
OVERALL     307.8 (6th)      27.15 (4th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Carlos Correa (Trade)                Jean Segura
Trevor Story (Trade)                 Jason Kipnis
James Paxton (Draft)                 Jose Ramirez
                                     Robert Gsellman



#7  JAY COOK
A team full of the elderly, haha.  That number, like with many other teams, gets inflated with the bullpen.  Currently predicted to finish as the top NL Wild Card team he will have to battle with injuries and underperformers that come with an aging team.  He has 11 players over the age of 32 at this time but has started to get some great young talent with the four young players predicted to be on his bench.  As has been the name of his game, he's riding the backs of his super-elite starting pitching.  If the team can stay healthy though it is not out of the realm of possibility that he will once again take the scoring title like he did last year!

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        81.8  (9th)      32.82 (16th)
OF/DH       76.3  (1st)      33.21 (15th)
SPs         115.5 (2nd)      29.80 (13th)
RPs         39.5  (14th)     34.19 (16th)
DEPTH       5.7   (15th)     26.48 (9th)
OVERALL     302.4 (7th)      31.03 (16th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
None                                 Ben Zobrist
                                     Jose Fernandez (RIP)



#8  BILL KLUGE
Taking over for Big Shon (who did not pay), my dad is taking over another one of those aging teams.  While the debacle that was created by Shon has passed, the win now attitude is still here as this team has another year or two before a full rebuild is needed.  He has the core to build around though with Goldy, Xander Bogarts, Mallex Smith and even Tapia so it's not like it will be that bad.  But the #2 offense in the league is going to be looking for a little bit better pitching staff as the year goes on.  If Bill can make a better pitching staff, he will easily be the top team in the AL East.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        91.0  (3rd)      29.78 (13th)
OF/DH       74.4  (2nd)      33.94 (16th)
SPs         92.4  (10th)     30.01 (14th)
RPs         44.0  (11th)     30.73 (11th)
DEPTH       14.4  (13th)     26.71 (10th)
OVERALL     300.6 (8th)      29.78 (14th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Ryan Madson (Draft)                  Cole Hamesl
Drew Smyly (Draft)                   John Lackey



#9  OLE NATER
Finally this guy's team of young studs is starting to pay dividends.  He is the only team this year to keep everyone and barring him dropping any players it should be the same for next season too.  Personally, I find it a bit curious how is projected this low in the rankings.  His offense is there in the top three and his pitching albeit young, actually has great potential.  He won the AL West last year with a 13-8 record and a similar if not greater outcome can definitely happen.  It's only unfortunate that his division is incredibly strong this year and will not be easy to repeat. 

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        93.6  (2nd)      28.38 (6th)
OF/DH       73.2  (3rd)      24.58 (1st)
SPs         84.8  (16th)     26.53 (4th)
RPs         49.8  (7th)      29.52 (9th)
DEPTH       15.4  (12th)     26.71 (11th)
OVERALL     300.5 (9th)      27.11 (3rd)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
None                                 None



#10  STACY HESS
We are starting to get to the area where teams are a bit subpar.  But the significance here is an improvement from last year.  Hess has finished dead last over the past couple years notching just six wins.  This year however with a moderately young pitching squad he will be able to be a playoff contender for the NL Wild Card this year.  He currently is holding 8 starting pitcher that will help bolster his lack of points he will get from a weak batting order.  It should be noted that he is going into the season like a few other teams, with only 4 relievers.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        73.8  (13th)     25.70 (2nd)
OF/DH       63.9  (11th)     29.43 (10th)
SPs         93.8  (7th)      26.68 (5th)
RPs         41.0  (13th)     28.66 (6th)
DEPTH       37.7  (2nd)      29.90 (15th)
OVERALL     294.2 (10th)     28.14 (10th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
None                                 None



#11  KYLE SPECTOR
Spectrocity assumes possession of Stillion's old team.  And unlike the questionable 8 hours of time between his back to back picks in the draft the team is actually better than what this ranking would indicate.  With one of the youngest starting pitching squads in the league and plenty of potential to be a top three squad.  His batting as a whole is not all that bad and I believe will perform better than this indicates.  He may not be ready to compete with Snak at the top of the division at this time but give it a couple years and he could build a Championship contender, not just a playoff contender.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        75.0  (11th)     28.98 (10th)
OF/DH       73.2  (3rd)      26.23 (3rd)
SPs         93.2  (8th)      25.71 (3rd)
RPs         39.3  (15th)     31.75 (13th)
DEPTH       25.4  (4th)      25.63 (7th)
OVERALL     290.3 (11th)     27.39 (7th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Joey Ross (Draft)                    None
Sean Manaea (Draft)



#12  JORDAN GOOD
Can lightning strike the same place twice for last year's runner up?  Last year Jordan was ranked right about here to start the season and it took a hot streak at the end of the year to make a deep run into the playoffs.  Like other teams that are getting old Jordan will need to consider getting younger fast.  The difference is that his old players do not score as much as Jay or Bill's.  I'm going to say it like I did last year, your biggest weakness again this year will be a lack of free agent cash.  If and when you have injuries you will be put in a serious bind.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        72.5  (15th)     29.42 (12th)
OF/DH       67.0  (9th)      30.10 (12th)
SPs         92.8  (9th)      30.79 (16th)
RPs         49.3  (9th)      28.03 (4th)
DEPTH       21.4  (7th)      29.25 (14th)
OVERALL     287.4 (12th)     29.53 (13th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Anthony Rendon (Trade)               Yordano Ventura (RIP)
Mike Moustakas (Trade)



#13  BRADLEY BRENNEMAN
As Brad went into a full blown rebuild in the middle of last season he got a bunch of good prospects.  As a result he now has an insanely young team and of course a very low scoring team until they become major league players and start having breakouts.  Fortunately for him, most of his players  will begin making their strides this year.  He won't be a true contender for another year or two due to the inconsistencies of a young team, but his future ceiling appears to be similar to Ole Nater's, maybe even higher because Brad knows when to drop a player. (That's right Nate, I said it)

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        75.0  (11th)     25.26 (1st)
OF/DH       71.3  (5th)      26.52 (6th)
SPs         88.5  (14th)     25.30 (2nd)
RPs         37.3  (16th)     29.42 (8th)
DEPTH       29.4  (3rd)      23.71 (2nd)
OVERALL     285.9 (13th)     25.70 (1st)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
None                                 None



#14  ROB JONES
Similarly to Brad's team, Rob has a very young team as a whole and has a lot of batting prospects that may get called up this year.  The drawback is that he can't really utilize the new pitching rules to the fullest and now with Alex Reyes out until the next year he is handcuffed.  Say he drops two of those prospects to get a couple starting pitchers, he would be competing with the Kluges at the top of the division.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        89.3  (5th)      28.61 (8th)
OF/DH       53.9  (16th)     25.55 (2nd)
SPs         92.3  (11th)     27.98 (8th)
RPs         49.5  (8th)      31.49 (12th)
DEPTH       4.0   (16th)     22.76 (1st)
OVERALL     274.1 (14th)     26.96 (2nd)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
None                                 Anthony Rendon



#15  CHRIS WATSON
Chris is taking over a team that was in shambles and has begun the long process of a team overhaul.  The offense is the worst in the league and until some of his prospects come up and develop into form it will likely be that way at least until 2019.  He can ride the pitching train he has put forth to have a mediocre season, but it's easy to write this season off.  He has two free seasons to repair the derailed train here.  Basing off of the first impression here, I believe he will not have any problems fixing it.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        65.1  (16th)     29.12 (11th)
OF/DH       60.8  (12th)     30.44 (13th)
SPs         96.6  (6th)      29.12 (11th)
RPs         50.3  (6th)      27.94 (3rd)
DEPTH       15.6  (11th)     24.51 (4th)
OVERALL     273.5 (15th)     27.99 (9th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Lorenzo Cain (Draft)                 Justin Bour
Cole Hamels (Draft)                  Raisel Iglesias
Tony Watson (Draft)



#16  JEFF KELM
I'm not playing favorites here Jeff, I promise.  Your team is better than this and we both know that   I'm not going to lie though, I can't believe you wanted Segura for Story...  That aside though, you have some premium prospects and a very good young pitching staff.  A first basemen that can supply 3+ points I believe will do your team wonders and despite being at the bottom, the league in it's entirety is very close and you can certainly be a playoff contender this year and beyond.  The projections indicate 5 wins but I'd say 12 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Group       Projection       Average Age
C/IF        73.8  (13th)     26.91 (4th)
OF/DH       55.2  (15th)     28.91 (9th)
SPs         91.3  (12th)     24.51 (1st)
RPs         50.5  (5th)      32.51 (15th)
DEPTH       12.2  (14th)     24.00 (3rd)
OVERALL     268.4 (16th)     27.17 (5th)


Key Additions                        Key Losses
Jean Segura (Trade)                  Trevor Story
Francisco Rodriguez (Trade)
Jharil Cotton (Draft)