Those of you who know me know that I love baseball, stats and
Microsoft excel. For years I've been posting stuff on the website but
of all those things this has been my favorite so far. Last year I made a
scatter graph for the first time depicting both age and projected
score. It really shown an unusual trend of the winning teams
additionally it hinted at the next winner. As you can see from the 2015
graph that it indicated a trend with the aging teams. Jeff (formerly
Tito) won in 2011, Brad won 2012, Rob won 2013 & 2014 and as you all
know Jay won in 2015. After all I consider the age of 28 the peak of a
player's potential and though that peak may last for a few years
injuries start becoming an issue and thus do not score as much.
Now granted there are people that drop most players even after
winning and redraft pretty well like Jay. Though a bit unorthodox it's
quite the strategy and proven a winning strategy at that. But one thing
to remember is that Jay's starting pitching is flat out sick. Like
King Felix is his fifth best starter type of sick. All he needs is an
average batting squad and decent bullpen and it's a done deal. But I
need not continue boast about that let's boast about how impressive of
rosters that Zack & Snak have put together. Heck Pete there is
projected to score so much that he is technically off the chart. But I
didn't want to redo everything so I just tossed that there. After all
it's only 0.7 points above the top. He along with Snak & Shon are
the favorites to win this year. They lead a group of teams with aging
players but have all really improved in terms of points scored and
that's the name of the game.
If the past is any indication of the future though the teams that
are younger tend to go further. Which basically means I'm going to win!
... I wish, however the projected standings say otherwise. So let's
get in to those:
AL EAST
TEAM RECORD GBK POINTS
R. Jones 15-06 ----- 6,537.5
S. McCullough 14-07 -1.0 6,897.5 2nd Wild Card
T. Kluge 11-10 -4.0 6,507.0
J. Kelm 02-19 -13.0 5,705.0
AL WEST
TEAM RECORD GBK POINTS
Z. Peters 16-05 ----- 7,050.0
S. Boviall 15-06 -1.0 6,829.5 1st Wild Card
A. Coak 13-08 -3.0 6,731.0
N. Good 02-19 -14.0 5,394.5
NL EAST
TEAM RECORD GBK POINTS
B. Brenneman 13-08 ----- 6,685.0 Beats Jay in TB
J. Cook 13-08 ----- 6,605.0 1st Wild Card
L. Stillion 12-09 -1.0 6,368.5 2nd Wild Card
J. Jones 09-12 -4.0 6,203.0
NL WEST
TEAM RECORD GBK POINTS
A. Namisnak 18-03 ----- 7,003.0
S. Hess 06-15 -12.0 6,129.5
J. Good 06-15 -12.0 5,807.5
B. Kluge 03-18 -15.0 5,701.5
Yeah, I know, it's the first thing that caught my eye too... I'm
going to finish sixth best in the AL... What a crock... Anyway not
breaking this down on a team by team basis but it seems that both AL
divisions are top heavy. But there is a key difference between the two.
Nate's team is going nowhere, Jeff's team will be getting better as
the season progresses with all the young players he picked up in the
draft this year and towards the end of last year and though will not
contend this year Shon's going to be looking at rebuilding within a
couple years and Rob & I will have aging squads so two years from
now Jeff can possibly win the division.
The NL East will be
known as the "group of death" this year where all four teams could
potentially win the division. The projections show that everyone in the
division will beat up on each other but Bradley beats Jay to win the
division by 80 points (they split the season series 2-2). Andy will
clinch his division by week 14 seeing that there is no standing
competition for him in his division.
#1 Zack Peters
He
didn't have to do very much to improve the team and quite honestly his
team is pretty average except for his bullpen mafia with four quality
closers in addition to one of the elite setup men in the game in Joe
Smith. He does of an aging team however and his starting pitching ranks
the oldest out of all the teams and he has six of the nine batters at
age 28 or older so the injury risk is concerning.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 84.3 | 29.09 | |
OF/DH | 75.0 | 28.28 | |
SPs | 104.3 | 30.39 | |
RPs | 74.8 | 28.85 | |
DEPTH | 23.2 | 28.10 | |
OVERALL | 335.7 | 28.94 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Hyun Soo Kim (Draft) Ryan Zimmerman
Lance Lynn
#2 Andy Namisnak
Comparing
Andy's team to Zack's they are extremely similar in regards to the
group parings below and how much each of them score. Andy's team is
slightly older but is better built for the future. You take away Dickey
(41 years old), Ortix (40) & Ziegler and his team's age is about a
year and a half lower. With that in mind he is primed better than
anyone else in the league to really make a huge dynasty run. Only
weakness I foresee in the near future is outfield & utility age,
which he has a solution for already with Zimmer and Soler sitting on the
bench in the waiting.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 86.8 | 28.16 | |
OF/DH | 68.8 | 31.73 | |
SPs | 108.5 | 28.37 | |
RPs | 73.0 | 30.22 | |
DEPTH | 22.0 | 27.90 | |
OVERALL | 333.5 | 29.12 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Joey Votto (Trade) Paul Goldschmidt
Aroldis Chapman (Trade)
Cody Allen (Trade)
Matt Kemp (Trade)
Bradley Zimmer (Draft)
#3 Shon McCullough
Another
fairly old team but high scoring in most aspects comes Shon. He made
some big trades and completely turned over James Eagan's team. His
infield is ranked 2nd, starting pitching, relief pitching and depth all
also in the top five as well. Shon's only weakness is his aging
outfield that is all on the downslope of each respective career.
Polonco being the exception but would be set as his main utility guy.
There are only three players under the age of 25 which indicates that
after a short burst of a couple years Shon's going to need to
reconstruct the foundation a bit. One thing to watch is the same
strategy that James used, Shon is following suit and has a couple
starting RPs on the team.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 89.3 | 29.10 | |
OF/DH | 63.9 | 29.85 | |
SPs | 113.8 | 28.68 | |
RPs | 60.7 | 29.48 | |
DEPTH | 26.1 | 30.17 | |
OVERALL | 328.4 | 29.47 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Paul Goldschmidt (Trade) Joey Votto
Ian Kinsler (Trade) Aroldis Chapman
Brett Gardner (Trade) Cody Allen
Kyle Seagar (Trade) Anthony Rendon
Kendrys Morales (Draft)
#4 Stephen Boviall
Without
a shadow of a doubt Steve's strength is his pitching squad. And you'd
think his SPs look good there. He has a superprospect waiting to make
it to majors in Giolito. Speaking of superprospects, Seagar is expected
to make his debut this season and will be the centerpiece to what is
currently an average batting lineup. The problem with Steve's rosters
is that it is the oldest five in just about every group. But the his
great young players should help bridge the gap in the coming years to
keep Boviall a contender.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 82.5 | 29.58 | |
OF/DH | 64.5 | 27.94 | |
SPs | 123.2 | 28.75 | |
RPs | 56.3 | 31.46 | |
DEPTH | 23.9 | 27.95 | |
OVERALL | 325.2 | 29.13 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Andrew Miller (Draft) Greg Bird
Joc Peterson (Trade) Andrelton Simmons
J.T. Realmuto (Draft) Yasmany Tomas
Clay Buccholz (Draft)
#5 Andy Coak
Andy
took over an aging team from Josh Troyer. At this point it's getting
to be time to blow up the team. He has ten players over the age of 32
now and is in the last year of legitimately contending a A-Roid, Cruz
Wright Zobrist, K-Rod and Kazmir all start falling off the fantasy
radar. He has a strong depth already so even when the injury bug hits
he should be alright for a little while. Should the season start
spiraling out of control it would be a good move to try to sell some of
the older players to get or make room for a younger generation
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 84.3 | 29.46 | |
OF/DH | 70.7 | 31.32 | |
SPs | 95.3 | 27.65 | |
RPs | 64.0 | 29.17 | |
DEPTH | 30.9 | 30.96 | |
OVERALL | 320.5 | 29.70 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Kyle Schwarber (Trade) Carlos Gomez
Starling Marte (Trade) Francisco Liriano
Santiago Casilla (Trade/Draft) Chris Sale
Kyle Hendricks (Draft) Lucas Duda
Nathan Karns (Draft)
Alex Rodriquez (Draft)
#6 Brad Brenneman
Much
like all the teams projected above Brad, his team is getting old. But
this is Brad Brenneman we are talking about so somehow he'll be able to
trade his old players for one mediocre young player that would turn into
the next Babe Ruth and all of the players he trades would be injury
plagued for the rest of their respective careers... Nonsense aside,
Bradley has six players already over the age of 32 on his batting squad.
Regardless of age, his team ranks in the 7 to 10 range in all groups
except for outfield and utility that is ranked second in the league.
Like all the other teams above it's going to about time to start
getting younger likely starting next year.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 84.3 | 30.77 | |
OF/DH | 80.0 | 30.70 | |
SPs | 105.1 | 28.38 | |
RPs | 53.3 | 30.08 | |
DEPTH | 20.1 | 29.95 | |
OVERALL | 318.3 | 29.95 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Jason Hammel (Draft) Fernando Rodney
#7 Jay Cook
The
2015 defending champion comes in the league looking for a repeat. But
shocking the world he drop most of his team. Generally that sounds like
a dangerous game to play and wish for success, but Jay has something
most people can only dream of. A starting pitching that can easily
score 150+ points on a weekly basis. You do that and it just takes a
couple perfectly placed pickups through the year and he could be well on
his way to winning it again, using the same strategy as 2015. The Vice
Admiral's also has the 2nd best depth in the league so should someone
go down he should be able to recover nicely. So why is he ranked at
seventh and not the favorite to win it all? His batting is projected to
be 15th best in the league (Infield is 14th, outfield is 13th).
Additionally his bullpen is mediocre and is also ranked 15th in the
league. But again Jay has $460 free agent cash to start with so he can
purchase his way into another championship and should be expected to be
in the top four when the season ends.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 73.8 | 28.18 | |
OF/DH | 62.0 | 30.55 | |
SPs | 135.1 | 29.82 | |
RPs | 40.8 | 29.75 | |
DEPTH | 27.1 | 27.15 | |
OVERALL | 314.5 | 28.95 |
Chris Sale (Trade) Steven Matz
Lucas Duda (Trade) Lucas Duda (lol)
Byung Ho Park (Draft Kyle Schwarber
Starling Marte
Prince Fielder
Santiago Casilla
#8 Rob Jones
Now
we are going to start getting into the younger teams a bit. Rob has
finished in the top four in scoring all seven years he has been in the
league and has won it three times in that span. Last year he got
shafted and missed the playoffs by a single game (still had a 12-8
record). Despite that and the fact he is projected to score a lot less
than Shon, Rob has a pretty soft schedule this year and projected to win
the division. His batters for the most part have hit the prime of
their careers outside of Pujols and Beltre. That being said though this
is going to be a prime chance to win the league. Even if he doesn't
though he picked of some future studs that could start filling the void
left from their elders starting next year. That in combination of one
of the youngest and best pitching squads in the league should keep him
contending for years. I see very few weaknesses here outside of maybe
getting a new right fielder.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 94.9 | 31.80 | |
OF/DH | 61.4 | 30.40 | |
SPs | 115.5 | 26.59 | |
RPs | 58.0 | 28.78 | |
DEPTH | 5.5 | 24.28 | |
OVERALL | 311.3 | 28.12 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Yoenis Cespedes (Trade) Jason Heyward
Lorenzo Cain (Trade) Yordano Ventura
Nomar Mazara (Draft) James Shields
Yasmany Tomas (Draft) Adam Lind
Justin Morneau
#9 Tyler Kluge
Don't
sleep on this team people. I am primed for a big year with a lot of
possible breakout players on the third youngest team in the league. The
pitching is a bit of a weakness ranked average in the projections. But
the batting is where the danger lies with sluggers all over the lineup
and now with Brantley looking like he will start opening day and a
decent bench to follow it has become quite versatile and despite the
projected 6th ranking can make a playoff push this year and a series of
Championship runs in the coming years.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 85.6 | 26.71 | |
OF/DH | 71.9 | 26.61 | |
SPs | 96.6 | 26.63 | |
RPs | 53.5 | 27.26 | |
DEPTH | 26.1 | 26.88 | |
OVERALL | 309.8 | 26.83 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Anthony Rizzo (Trade) Giancarlo Stanton
Jason Heyward (Trade) Yoenis Cespedes
Anthony Rendon (Trade) Carlos Santana
Vincent Velasquez (Draft) Ian Kinsler
Brett Gardner
Andrelton Simmons
Kendrys Morales
#10 Lucas Stillion
The
number three team in the Group of Death is the Q with a sick offense
lead by Trout & Stanton. If Puig should find his way and Perez
continues to blossom into a Buster Posey like catcher then Stillion will
be slaughtering a lot of opponents with just his offense alone. His
pitching isn't anything to look forward to either. Granted I don't know
why he drafted Axford and Capps but get those two out of the way and
his bullpen will be above average to go along with his already slightly
above average starting pitching. Stillion's problem has been a lack of
activity from a fantasy perspective if he would make pickups to replace
players in a timely manner I think he'd be able to beat both Brad &
Jay this year and in the future.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 77.5 | 28.47 | |
OF/DH | 79.4 | 26.76 | |
SPs | 106.5 | 25.71 | |
RPs | 45.0 | 30.75 | |
DEPTH | 18.2 | 27.65 | |
OVERALL | 303.3 | 27.90 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Giancarlo Stanton (Trade) Anthony Rizzo
Tyler Glasnow (Draft) Denard Span
Jose Berrios (Draft)
#11 Jon Jones
This
is one of the most appealing teams in the league right now just based
off how great this will be in another year or two. This probably won't
be Jon's year but my God does he have a lot of future All Stars on the
team. And no we are not talking about prospects, no these guys are
already in the league and playing. His outfield is ranked number one in
projected score. It's also the youngest in the league. His starting
pitchers will get better with time which takes a little longer sometimes
than the batters. But that aside Jon's only weakness is the near
future, this year to be exact. After this year it appears that he will
be a top five team going into the next decade.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 70.1 | 24.68 | |
OF/DH | 81.2 | 25.35 | |
SPs | 88.5 | 25.13 | |
RPs | 65.7 | 28.56 | |
DEPTH | 12.7 | 26.30 | |
OVERALL | 295.4 | 26.04 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Steve Cishek (Trade) Joc Pederson
A.J. Reed (Draft)
David Peralta (Trade)
#12 Stacy Hess
It's
not your time yet Hess. But like Jon, give it a year and he will have a
strong team. However the ceiling may not quite be as high for Stacy's
young squad. I like the future his bullpen has in store especially with
Osuna, Gott & Sanchez. His starting pitching isn't that strong
this year and has some mediocrity but that alright his batting should be
able to bridge the gap that leaves as early as this year.
Weakness-wise again, I do not believe the ceiling here is as solid as
Jon's however maybe not top 5 but definitely playoff contender. Even
this year he could make the playoffs due to a weak division.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 78.7 | 24.06 | |
OF/DH | 67.6 | 29.57 | |
SPs | 101.2 | 28.43 | |
RPs | 41.0 | 26.14 | |
DEPTH | 25.8 | 25.65 | |
OVERALL | 291.9 | 26.61 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Rougned Odor (Draft) Joe Panik
Prince Fielder (Draft) Devin Travis
Ketel Marte (Draft)
Roberto Osuna (Draft)
Orlando Arcia (Draft)
#13 Jordan Good
Jordan,
buddy, it's time for some tough love here. I love the addition of Matz
& Ventura. You also traded for Gomez & Santana all great
additions. But a lot of your team should have been dropped man! It's
not like they are aging ungracefully They simply just are not very
good. Your SP's are fine but you should have blown up your bullpen.
Threw Ian Desmond in the trash after a persnal vendetta of scoring you
-17 last year in week 1 with all those errors, pumped up your 2B
position a bit more and you would be ranked in the top ten. Enough
ranting here though Andrelton Simmons was a perfect add in place of
Desmond. And the biggest weakness I see here is a lack of free agent
cash again.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 78.7 | 24.06 | |
OF/DH | 67.6 | 29.57 | |
SPs | 101.2 | 28.43 | |
RPs | 41.0 | 26.14 | |
DEPTH | 25.8 | 25.65 | |
OVERALL | 291.9 | 26.61 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Yordano Ventura (Trade) Zack Cozart
Steven Matz (Trade)
Carlos Gomez (Trade)
Carlos Santana (Trade)
Andrelton Simmons (Draft)
Alex Gordon (Trade)
#14 Jeff Kelm
Next
to Jon's and my own team this has become one of my favorites. Granted
he is in rebuilding mode Jeff played it smartly and kept half of his
aging players so he can try to contend in an exceptionally strong AL
pool. I believe the strategy on this one is sound as half his players
are rookies and prospects and the other half well on the downslope of
their careers. For example his Starting pitching is 3rd youngest but
relief pitching is the oldest. Adding Judge at the end of last season
appears to be a wise pickup as he in my believe is the best prospect out
there. His infield is one of the youngest and one of the best already
and his outfield outside of Holiday is young and coming into their own.
Weakness wise his bullpen is aging, inconsistent and/or injury prone.
That's going to hold him back a bit. But average RPs come a dime a
dozen on free agency so simple fix there when the time comes.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 84.9 | 26.92 | |
OF/DH | 59.5 | 28.37 | |
SPs | 85.5 | 25.96 | |
RPs | 51.3 | 33.47 | |
DEPTH | 11.3 | 25.15 | |
OVERALL | 271.7 | 27.85 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Ryan Zimmerman (Draft) Taylor Jungmann
Dansby Swanson (Draft)
#15 Bill Kluge
We'll
start with the foundation is good. Dee Gordon is a beast d'Arnaud is
the catcher to keep, Souza is still underrated and that's all the
positives I can find here. The issue is there are not any prospects to
give me any hope of this really ending well. It is the 2nd oldest team
and despite being in by far the easiest division it still will be a
challenge to get to.ten wins and contend with the other teams from the
NL East.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 76.3 | 28.94 | |
OF/DH | 60.1 | 28.13 | |
SPs | 85.5 | 30.15 | |
RPs | 50.5 | 33.44 | |
DEPTH | 19.9 | 27.92 | |
OVERALL | 271.5 | 29.71 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Lucas Duda )Draft) Mike Leake
Delino DeShields (Draft)
Kenta Maeda (Draft)
Tanner Roark (Draft)
#16 Nate Good
So
remember a few years ago when I said watch out for Nater's team?
Oops... His team is still pretty young but it's upkeep isn't very
good. Yes Nate you have a lot of keepers. Just not 23 of them. The
bullpen should have been dropped in its entirety. Avila is one of the
worst catchers out there and though there's still time for the offense
to become one of the best in the league that hope is starting to fade
with every passing year. You have two good 3B's, go get yourself a
great LF & SS bro. And like your brother Jordan another issue is a
lack of free agent cash because you kept so many again. What it comes
down to is a bad team in arguably the strongest division and you have
yourself a recipe for complete disaster on a monumental scale! I'm
talking like a Jeff Maye 0-21 type of schedule.
Group | Proj. | Ave. Age | |
C/IF | 75.6 | 27.74 | |
OF/DH | 76.9 | 25.52 | |
SPs | 78.5 | 26.47 | |
RPs | 28.8 | 28.62 | |
DEPTH | 16.8 | 27.02 | |
OVERALL | 256.9 | 27.13 |
Key Additions Key Losses
Yoan Moncada )Trade)